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Rate Cycles and Yield Curves – A Target for 5s
Jan. 10, 2014 In late 1992, just as the Fed was putting the finishing touches on a three-year easing cycle that took the Fed funds rate from 9.75% down to 3%, the 2s/5s Treasury curve peaked at a high...
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Treasuries Attractive Despite Taper
Jan. 17, 2014 U.S. Treasuries are starting to look interesting, and the market may be ripe up for a nice little rally in the coming quarter. Professional traders and investors have spent much of the...
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Yellen’s Testimony Today – Potential Disappointment
Feb. 11, 2014 As the financial world prepares to read, interpret, and react to Janet Yellen’s Monetary Report to Congress today, I thought it might be useful to take a quick glance at market movements...
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Treasury Curves and Fed Swerves
April 29, 2014 There’s been a lot of talk in the bond markets lately about the recent bid for the 30-year sector and the attendant flattening of the yield curve. While the 10yr note has done nothing...
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Noisy Inflation Trades
One of the highlights of an otherwise uneventful press conference by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen earlier this week was her carefree dismissal of recent inflation gains as mere “noise.” This was...
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Periodic Reassessment: Treasury Notes
Treasury Notes (TYU4), July 29, 2014 General Assessment: Speculators and real money investors remain meaningfully short / underweight Treasuries, and any softening of rate hike expectations or decline...
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Treasury Notes, Aug. 11, 2014 Reassessment
Treasury Notes (TYU4), Aug. 11, 2014 General Assessment: Speculators and real money investors remain short / underweight Treasuries, but many of these shorts are in no big rush to cover, and a new push...
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Treasury Notes, Sep. 5, 2014 Reassessment
Treasury Notes (TYZ4), Sep. 5, 2014 General Assessment: Many real money investors remain short / underweight Treasuries in anticipation of an eventual normalization in Fed rate policy, but there are...
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For the Love of the Dollar
As an independent futures trader, I spend a great deal of my time researching and trying to identify exploitable asymmetries and imbalances in the financial markets. When I determine, for example, that...
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Ten-Year Notes, Jan. 6 Reassessment
Ten-Year Notes (TYH5), Jan. 6, 2014 General Assessment: Short term trader sentiment has become very positive on notes and bonds following recent upward momentum, but a large number of longer time-frame...
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